Monthly Archive for November, 2011

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What to Watch for with Tonight’s Election Returns

Published by Waldo Jaquith on November 8, 2011 in Politics. 7 Comments

Whether you want to know what to look for or want to sound erudite while awaiting today’s election results, here are some key questions to keep in mind tonight:

  • Will an independent get elected to City Council? There are just too many independents running for that to be likely, but it is possible. If one does make the cut, whether that independent is to the right or the left of Charlottesville Democrats will be important for tea leaf readers.
  • Will Democrats regain control of the Board of Supervisors? With conservative Democrat Lindsay Dorrier retiring—a reliable voting ally of Republicans on the board—and Democrat Cynthia Neff staging a strong challenge to two-term incumbent Republican Ken Boyd, Dems could remain a two-person minority on the six-person board, they could tie it up by gaining one seat, or return the board to where it was two years ago by winning both of the contested seats. It’s possible for a Democratic majority to bring a halt to the Western Bypass. If they do win, look for Albemarle to rejoin ICLEI, if only to annoy the anti-UN conspiracy theorists.
  • By how much will Democrats win the two nominally competitive state-level races? In the 59th House district, Connie Brennan is the odds-on favorite against the Republican and independent candidates for the open seat, but if she wins by less than 50%, she’ll surely face a strong challenge in two years. And in the 25th Senate district, Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) is facing a challenge in the form of T.J. Aldous Jr., a conservative Republican who lives in Charlottesville, but he hasn’t lived in Virginia for long, and he’s been out-raised 5:1 by Deeds.
  • Will Senator Edd Houck win re-election? Few around here had heard the conservative Democrat’s name before this year, when the 17th Senate district was redrawn to include part of Albemarle. Republican Bryce Reeves of Fredericksburg is taking the opportunity to run against Houck, raising $1M to Houck’s $1.2M, making this a pretty high-dollar race. The district has changed enough that it’s tough to know if Houck will survive the challenge; the benefits of incumbency disappear pretty quickly with severe redistricting. This race is of particular importance statewide because of Democrats’ 22-18 advantage in the Senate of Virginia. Republicans have a very real chance of taking the Senate tonight, which would eliminate any role for Democrats in state governance.

For my money, the Board of Supervisors is the most exciting spectacle in Albemarle politics tonight.

Polls close at 7:00, and precinct-level results should start showing up on the State Board of Elections’ website starting around 7:15.

Whom Do You Endorse?

Published by Waldo Jaquith on November 5, 2011 in Politics. 40 Comments Tags: .

Here’s what you’ll be facing when you go to vote on Tuesday.

Let’s start with Charlottesville. You’ll be voting for Senate of Virginia, House of Delegates, Clerk of Court, City Council, School Board, and Soil and Water Conservation Director. All but one of those races are contested, so pay attention. For Senate, incumbent Democrat Creigh Deeds is being challenged by Republican T.J. Aldous Jr. For House, incumbent Democrat David Toscano is being challenged by independent Robert Brandon Smith III for the second consecutive election. The Clerk of Court seat is open, with Democrat Llezelle Dugger being challenged by Pam Melampy, an independent who Dugger defeated in the Democratic primary earlier this year. For City Council, there are three Democrats (Kathleen Galvin, DeDe Smith, and incumbent Satyendra Huja) and five independents (Scott Bandy, Brandon Collins, Bob Fenwick, Paul Long, and Andrew Williams)—pick any three. For School Board, there are seven non-party-affiliated candidates running for four seats: Colette Blount, Ivana Kadija, Steven Latimer, Amy Laufer, Guian McKee, Jennifer McKeever, and Willa Neale. And while there are two incumbent candidates for the two Soil and Water Conservative Director positions (Rich Collins and John Conover), nobody is challenging them.

Onto Albemarle. We’ll be voting for Senate of Virginia, House of Delegates, Commonwealth’s Attorney, Sheriff, Soil and Water Conservation Director, School Board (at-large, Scottsville, Rivanna, and White Hall), and Board of Supervisors (Scottsville, Rivanna, and White Hall). Only some of these are contested. There are two Senate races in the county: incumbent Democrat Creigh Deeds is being challenged by Republican T.J. Aldous Jr., and incumbent Democrat Edd Houck is being challenged by Republican Bryce Reeves. (If you don’t recognize Houck’s name, don’t feel bad—redistricting earlier this year put a big chunk of Albemarle in his district.) There are three House races: incumbent Democrat David Toscano is being challenged by independent Robert Brandon Smith III for the second consecutive election; incumbent Republican Rob Bell has no challenger; and Democrat Connie Brennan, Republican Matt Farriss, and independent Linda Wall are all vying for the open seat formerly occupied by independent Watkins Abbitt. For Commonwealth’s Attorney, first-term incumbent Democrat Denise Lunsford is unchallenged. For Sheriff, first-term incumbent Republican Chip Harding is unchallenged. For the at-large school board seat, Cynthia Burket, Joe Oddo, and Ned Gallaway are all running against each other. In the Scottsville, White Hall, and Rivanna districts, there is just one candidate apiece (Steve Koleszar, Barbara Massie Mouly, and Jason Buyaki, respectively). Finally, for the trio of Board of Supervisors races, there’s an open seat in Scottsville (Republican James Norwood vs. Democrat Chris Dumler), Democratic incumbent Ann Mallek is unchallenged in White Hall, and a challenge in Rivanna (Republican incumbent Ken Boyd vs. Democrat Cynthia Neff). Albemarle County provides sample ballots for each precinct, which is worth looking at in advance.

Note that redistricting has resulted in some very confusing precincts in Albemarle county—four of them are split. That means that you and your neighbor may vote in the same precinct, but be voting in wholly different House or Senate races. If you’re in the Free Bridge, Jack Jouett, Stony Point, or Woodbrook precincts, you should double-check in which state-level district you’re in. To find out more about these elections and candidates, see Cvillepedia’s “2011 Election” entry.

There are a lot of down-ticket races that folks don’t know much about and, thanks to redistricting, even some top-of-the-ballot candidates that are mysteries to a lot of people. So I hope you’ll take this chance to explain who you’re supporting and—more important—why. Convince us to support your guy.

Albemarle in Top 3% of Country by Income Disparity

Published by Waldo Jaquith on November 4, 2011 in General News. 41 Comments

The always-excellent Pro Publica has used 2010 census data to determine which U.S. counties have the greatest income disparity, and Albemarle County turns out to one of the most severe cases in the nation. Of the 818 largest counties (by population), only 13 have more income inequality than Albemarle County. 97% of sampled counties have more income equality than we do.

This is measured using the Gini coefficient, a basic statistical method of measuring the inequality of distributions, in this case applied to incomes as reported in census data. One extreme would be a county in which everybody makes exactly the same amount (Loudoun County is the closest to this out of all sampled counties) and the other extreme would have the entire population with no income at all, except for one guy who receives all of the money. We are, apparently, closer to the latter.

Bronfman Farm Manager Acquitted of Embezzling

Published by Waldo Jaquith on November 1, 2011 in Law and Justice. 2 Comments Tags: .

Edgar Bronfman Sr‘s former farm manager, Michael Nemeyer, has been acquitted of eleven charges of embezzling from Bronfman, Hawes Spencer writes for The Hook. The 52-year-old had been accused of stealing $115,000 from the noted millionaire over the course of two decades of managing Georgetown Farm, in Free Union, a beef and bison farm which shut down in 2004. The jury found him not guilty on all charges, apparently leaning on the fact that Nemeyer had initially volunteered that he owed the money to Bronfman, describing them as loans. There was a lack of criminal deception and, thus, no embezzlement. One juror even argued that the case never should have made it as far as the criminal justice system.

Disclaimer: I lived next door to Georgetown Farm as a kid, I’ve had connections with members of the Bronfman/Hoffman family for many years, and Mike Nemeyer paid me a few bucks to fix his computer when I was in high school and kindly donated ~$200 to help fund my hike of the Appalachian Trail in 1996.

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