It was a good day for Democrats here in Virginia. Barack Obama has won the presidency, of course, with spontaneous celebrations breaking out in the streets of cities across the nation and the world, but he also won the state of Virginia, with about 51% of the vote with 95% of precincts reporting right now. Mark Warner won John Warner’s Senate seat handily, defeating Jim Gilmore. Both candidates easily won Charlottesville and Albemarle.
Less clear is the outcome of the race between Rep. Virgil Goode and and Democratic challenger Tom Perriello. Though Perriello is ahead, there are two outstanding precincts that historically have gone heavily Republican, so Goode is likely to emerge about two hundred votes ahead, by my math. But that’s before the provisional ballots are counted, and that’s before the inevitable recount. Expect this one to stretch out for a while.
Waldo,
I think we have won Va-05. Assuming that the numbers the SBE is reporting are correct, then Perriello is up by over 2,000 votes. Even if you assume that Goode is able to carry the two precincts remaining two precincts (Campbell- Absentee & Lunenburg-Plymouth)give Virgil the same margin (numerically) as ’04, then I think he still would fall about 1200 short.
Retped:
I think we have won Va-05. Assuming that the numbers the SBE is reporting are correct, Perriello is up by over 2,000 votes. Even if you assume that Goode is able to carry the two precincts remaining two precincts (Campbell- Absentee & Lunenburg-Plymouth)by the same margin (numerically) as ‘04, then I think he still would fall about 1200 short.
At 8:19 this AM, Virgil Goode took a 300 vote lead according to the VA website. Can you say recount?
On the State Board of Elections website, you can see the one precinct in Lunenburg that hasn’t reporter (“101 Plymouth”). How does this happen? I’ve done poll watching before and at the end of the night, there’s such a specific procedure…how does a precinct not report?
We were watching the Perriello race last night long after the Presidential race. I’m really disappointed that today he’s down again after such an incredible comeback last night.
Whatever happens, I hope the message sent to Goode came across loud and clear. It’s hard to unseat someone like Goode who has been there pretty much forever, but Perriello really gave him a tough race.
I still hope there’s a small chance he can squeek by, or that a recount would send him over the edge. If not, then there’s always next time…
CNN and the VA site both have oddly different results:
VA site:
Goode – 157,070
Perriello – 156,768
CNN:
Perriello – 157,851
Goode – 156,694
wondering how this is possible.. CNN has counted 707 more votes, but the numbers are off.. it’s not like 1 candidate is missing 707 of those on the VA site, they’d have to be attributed to the wrong candidate or one of these has bad data.
Also, CNN says 100% reporting, VA says 99.67%.
Digging deeper now.. curious.
VA doesn’t have Lunenberg fully in.
VA Lunenberg:
Goode – 2,437
Perriello – 2,229
CNN Lunenberg:
Goode – 2,788
Perriello – 2,336
weird. none of these are matching up. another example:
VA Albemarle:
Perriello – 31,701
Goode – 18,388
CNN Albemarle:
Perriello – 33,073
Goode – 18,777
which is a crucial ~1100 vote difference in a race this tight.
Take a look at this! Changes to 5th Congressional District at VBE Web site:
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/07261AFC-9ED3-410F-B07D-84D014AB2C6B/Unofficial/8A294C8B-A992-49E3-A08D-BC94549DB0E5_cr_all_dt.shtml
“VERIS went down at midnight and changed totals…”
What a mess! And what’s VERIS?
I was looking at the Virginia data about vote changes and they had a note that said “VERIS went down at midnight and changed totals.”
Technical glitch? (Hope they keep a paper backup)
So so sick of Goode.
Reporting:307 of 307 (100%)@9:58am
Virgil H. Goode, Jr. 157,421 50.04%
Tom S. P. Perriello 156,975 49.90%
CNN has updated again too. 100%
Perriello – 158,346
Goode – 157,785
???
VERIS is the new (and controversial) state voter registration database system.
I just did an analysis of the changes due to the VERIS malfunction (?). In Danville, Tom Perriello’s vote totals (“original value”) were REDUCED by 308, while Virgil Goode’s vote totals were INCREASED by 1819.
I do not understand why vote totals would have been affected by VERIS “going down after midnight,” as the VBE update page states. It seems the system is used to report vote totals. So precincts were able to report vote totals before midnight (presumably, these are the “original values”), but were prevented from finishing until this morning, when (it seems) the system was rebooted. Why, then, would vote totals have been decreased as well as increased?
Also, the data from the missing precinct in Lunenberg were just added (9:58am): 351 Goode, 207 Perriello.
also, CNN’s numbers have the “corrected” Danville ones, and still has Perriello ahead by ~550.
VBE is now reporting
GOODE 157,421
PERRIELLO 156,975
Note that the changes made due to the VERIS malfunction may have altered the outcome of the election. Here is what the total would be using the “original values”:
PERRIELLO 157283
GOODE 155602
There’s a 9 minute result differential between the SBE and the CNN site for Albemarle County. So CNN got some data that SBE doesn’t have reflected yet, which is why it has more votes.
And those votes are enough (~1100) to tip the election to Perriello. If there is indeed a precinct that SBE didn’t get in yet (even though both claim 100% have reported), then that’s the reason for the discrepancy between the 2 sets of numbers.
*When* is this going to be decided? Boy am I ever glad I made sure to vote for Perriello. You’ve got support in Pittsylvania County yet, Tom!
Both FOX and MSNBC also have the same #s as CNN, with Perriello ahead.
Like a horse race I’m waiving my fist. Go Perriello! I appreciate the updates!
The Hook is the first local news source to declare Goode the winner. Seems kind of strange. Do they have insider info the rest of us don’t, or have they just not seen the CNN stats? It’s pretty nervy to suggest the race is over at this point.
The difference between the MSM and the VA SBE numbers:
1372 more for Perriello
389 more for Goode
According to the VA SBE website, the only site that seems to have precinct #s:
203 – Georgetown:
Perriello: 1,372
Goode: 391
Is it possible the MSM counted Georgetown twice? Exact difference for Perriello, only 2 votes off for Goode.
Either way, it’s going to be recounted.
Updated margin Goode by 146
RACE CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE% STATISTICS DETAILS
Member House of Representatives
(05)
Last Reported: Nov 5 2008 11:14AM EST
Reporting:
307 of 307 (100%)
Virgil H. Goode, Jr. 157,421 49.99% Precincts
Tom S. P. Perriello 157,275 49.94%
Write In 170 0.05%
CNN and news.yahoo.com, both have:
Perriello: 158,996
Goode: 158,877
“updated 26 minutes ago”
Are CNN’s number coming from AP this time?
You can drill down to just the county level, but those numbers are from last night.
I really wonder who people wrote in. Amazing that the election margin could be less than the total # of write in votes.
The Albemarle County numbers on the two sites *still* don’t match.
Oh well, to lunch. Not like this is going to be decided any time soon.
Anyone have a sense for when this will be resolved? Are we talking next week?
Obama received 79% of the vote in C-ville; this appears to be tops for the state, percentage-wise. Does anyone know of a county or city with a higher percentage?
From my understanding, there was a major error in data entry in a locality in southside, and the strong dem precinct was accidentally entered in last night for multiple precincts.
When the election there was certified this morning, they caught the error, which bumped Goode up by 302.
I think the most current numbers I saw on the state board of elections has Goode up by 145 (with that final precinct in Lunenburg with its 800-odd voters finally entered in!)
But, and this is a big one: None of the provisional ballots anywhere in the district have been certified or entered.
With both sides lawyering up, it will probably be December before we have a congressman.
Some interesting numbers from VA SBE site:
-McCain won VA-05 district 50.71% to 48.21%, so Perriello actually outperformed Obama (of course, not nearly as much as Warner did…)
-Also, VA-05 had 324,043 total votes for President, but only 314,867 total votes for Rep. So over 9,000 people voted for President and left Congress blank. Wonder who they would have voted for? Tough to say–the district went to McCain by 2.5% overall, but would folks just voting for President be more likely to be first-time voters and therefore for Obama?
Late military ballots are also at issue, the Republican party filed a lawsuit about that yesterday.
Top percentages by city/county:
Obama
PETERSBURG CITY: 13,671 88.56%
RICHMOND CITY: 73,180 79.13%
CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY: 14,862 78.46%
ARLINGTON COUNTY: 78,953 71.82%
ALEXANDRIA CITY: 50,415 71.75%
NORFOLK CITY: 56,191 70.54%
FALLS CHURCH CITY: 4,695 69.55%
CHARLES CITY COUNTY: 2,811 68.19%
PORTSMOUTH CITY: 26,200 66.81%
***********
McCain
POQUOSON CITY: 5,229 74.02%
SCOTT CO: 6,922 70.67%
POWHATTAN CO: 10,084 69.81%
COLONIAL HEIGHTS CITY: 6,160 69.65%
AUGUSTA COUNTY: 23,111 69.35%
BLAND CO: 2,031 68.63%
BEDFORD CO: 24,402 68.17%
CAMPBELL CO: 17,353 67.63%
ROCKINGHAM CO: 22,459 67.23%
In the anti-gay marriage/union off-year vote recently, it was
charlottesville 77%
arlington 74%
alexandria 70%
richmond city 70%
falls church 69%
and on the other side
buchanan 90%
tazewell 86%
wise 84%
smyth 82%
bland 80%
Here’s a local puzzle: I was working at Carver precinct for Obama/Warner/Perriello dawn till dusk yesterday. Midmorning we heard that the voter count at Carver had topped 1000; by late afternoon that we’d reached the 1300 mark.
But today I see that the vote totals at Carver only add up to ~1050.
I bring this up because 1. what I heard at the precinct and 2. because now I see that 1227 voters voted at Carver in the Goode/Weed contest in 2004. Really hard to imagine that this vote number went DOWN nearly 200 votes given that the voter rolls increased by nearly 10% in Charlottesville this year. (Is sure did seem that 10% of the voters at Carver yesterday were new voters.)
Also, check this out:
In 2004 there were 1018 votes for Kerry at Carver (and 246 for Bush);
In 2008 there were 873 votes for Obama (167 for McCain).
Obama got 145 fewer votes than Kerry at Carver??
Contrast this with Tonsler, another precinct in the city that is predominantly African-American:
2004: 859 votes for Kerry (143 for Bush);
2008: 1280 votes for Obama (167 for McCain).
Have we lost some votes? (Paper ballots that weren’t read by the scanner?)
Down to 6!
Member House of Representatives
(05)
Last Reported: Nov 5 2008 2:20PM EST
Virgil H. Goode, Jr. 157,421 49.97% Precincts
Tom S. P. Perriello 157,415 49.97%
Write In 174 0.05%
Reporting:
307 of 307 (100%)
Voter Turnout:
315,010 of 435,905 active voters (72.26%)
315,010 of 443,740 total voters (70.98%) Votes
Karl Ackerman, the Absentee votes went from 867 votes in year 2004 to 3515 votes in year 2008. That drains same-day voters from the other precincts.
About race, Carver is pretty well mixed as I recall it.
2004 vs. 2008 total votes in House 5 race:
Central Absentee Precinct 867 – 3,515
Conditional Votes 11 – 0 (so far)
****
Recreation 1,797 – 2,595
Clark 1,090 – 1,751
Carver 947 – 1,048
Walker 1,192 – 1,881
Benjamin Tonsler 778 – 1,423
Jefferson Park 1,649 – 2,095
Venable 1,379 – 2,904
Alumni Hall 834 – 1,469
Does seem odd Carver would have the smallest increase. UVa students probably account for a lot of the increase in Alumni, Venable, Jefferson Park. For race, you can draw some pretty bright lines still, unfortunately. But they are both within and between various districts.
I checked your numbers, Colfer. You don’t have totals in 2004, just Al Weed’s totals. (Plus, your 2008 Jefferson Park number was incorrect.)
http://www2.sbe.virginia.gov/web_docs/Election/Results/2004/Nov2004/detail540.htm#06005
Here are the actual numbers:
2004 vs. 2008 total votes in House 5 race:
Central Absentee Precinct 1,219 – 3,515
Conditional Votes 13 – 0 (so far)
****
Recreation 2,597 – 2,595
Clark 1,514 – 1,751
Carver 1,227 – 1,048
Walker 1,942 – 1,881
Benjamin Tonsler 955 – 1,423
Jefferson Park 2,394 – 2,185
Venable 1,962 – 2,904
Alumni Hall 1,097 – 1,469
Totals: 14,920 – 18,771
Yes, there were 2,300 more absentee votes. And ~3900 more votes period. The drop at Carver still looks odd when considered in light of how many folks we heard had voted.
Oops, sorry. Looks like you mighta been on track…
SBE added a bunch of Cville votes today, net 542 for Perriello! But the precinct breakdowns have not been updated.
http://www.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/local/local_govtpolitics/article/perriellos_lead_grows_by_slight_margin/30868/
Says the Cville registrar reported it on his blog as well.
Here’s a breakdown of new votes found in Cville.
http://www.readthehook.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/goode-defeats-perriello-by-446-votes/
“Unreported in the initial count were 2,053 Perriello votes from Jefferson Park, 1,272 Perriello votes from Tonsler Park, and 1,142 Perriello votes from the Carver Community Center. An additional 3,112 Perriello votes from absentee ballots are now part of the new total as well”